As National Football League fans gear up for another season, enthusiastic sports reporters and fans may overestimate the likelihood that their favorite team will be successful, according to a study published in PLOS One. People are often optimistic about their own fortunes and outcomes as compared to others—a phenomenon known as the optimism bias.
An Optimism Bias Among NFL Fans
The scientists who authored the study recruited participants during the NFL off-season using Amazon Mechanical Turk, a paid crowdsourcing platform. Each participant was paid $0.25 for his or her participation. A total of 1,118 people participated over the course of three days during the NFL off-season. Two participants were excluded for listing the same team as their least and most favorite, leaving 1,116 remaining. Of this total, 446 women and 670 men participated, with an average age of 34.
Researchers asked the reporters and the fans how many games their favorite and least favorite teams would win during the 2015 season. The average number of wins is eight, because every NFL team plays 16 games. Participants predicted an average of 9.59 wins for their favorite teams, compared to just 6.1 wins for their most hated teams.
What Allows Optimism Bias to Persist?
If a team loses year after year, some may think fans would stop overestimating its chances of success. Even among the least successful teams, though, fans are persistent in their belief that this game or this year could be the one that turns everything around.
For the current study, researchers did not directly assess why fans are so hopeful about their teams. The study’s authors point out that NFL teams show a statistical regression to the mean over time, which means that bad teams tend to improve, while good teams remain good. A fan who supports a losing team might point to improvements over time, while a fan devoted to a successful team can argue that the team’s ongoing successes mean this will be another positive year.
References:
- Dallas, M. (2015, September 13). Football Fans May Overestimate Chances of Favorite NFL Team. Retrieved from http://consumer.healthday.com/mental-health-information-25/psychology-and-mental-health-news-566/football-fans-view-favorite-team-through-rose-colored-glasses-703191.html
- Klein, W. M. (n.d.). Optimistic bias. Retrieved from http://cancercontrol.cancer.gov/Brp/constructs/optimistic_bias/index.html
- Love, B. C., Kopeć, L., and Guest, O. (2015). Optimism bias in fans and sports reporters. PLOS One. Retrieved from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0137685
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